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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.